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Pronóstico: Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Erling Haaland: 1+ shots 95% Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots 94% Erling Haaland: 2+ shots 81% Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots 79% Volume: $259K Liquidity: $1.6M Closes: 5 Jul 2026
Open live market →
Pronóstico: Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
95% 5% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
95% 5% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots95%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots94%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots81%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots79%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots74%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots74%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots66%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots66%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots64%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 1+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target48%
Alisson: 2+ saves48%
Alisson: 5+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves48%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists48%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists48%
Alisson: 4+ saves47%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots45%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target45%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals44%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots44%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots43%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots42%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals41%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots40%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target39%
Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists39%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target35%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists34%
Raphinha: 1+ shots33%
Raphinha: 2+ shots on target33%
Alisson: 3+ saves33%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists33%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists33%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots32%
Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves32%
Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists32%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals31%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target31%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists31%
Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists30%
Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists30%
Erling Haaland: 5+ shots28%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots28%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target28%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target28%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target28%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target28%
Raphinha: 3+ shots on target28%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target28%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists28%
Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists28%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists28%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots27%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target27%
Raphinha: 4+ shots on target27%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists27%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists27%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots26%
Raphinha: 2+ shots26%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists26%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target26%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target25%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists25%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots24%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists24%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists22%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots21%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots21%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target21%
Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists21%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target20%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots19%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists19%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals17%
Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots15%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots14%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots14%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists14%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals13%
Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots13%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target13%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals12%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals12%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists12%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target12%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target12%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots11%
Raphinha: 3+ shots11%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists11%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals10%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists10%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots9%
Raphinha: 1+ goals8%
Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots8%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists8%
Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots7%
Igor Thiago: 5+ shots7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots7%
Raphinha: 4+ shots7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals6%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots6%
Raphinha: 1+ assists6%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals4%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals3%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals3%
Raphinha: 5+ shots3%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists3%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists3%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals2%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals2%
Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots2%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists2%
Erling Haaland: 2+ assists2%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists2%
Raphinha: 2+ assists2%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals1%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals1%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals1%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals1%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals1%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals1%
Raphinha: 2+ goals1%
Raphinha: 3+ goals1%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for Pronóstico: Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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