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Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Map 1 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5) 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 100% Volume: $276K Liquidity: $518K Closes: 15 Jul 2026
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Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Phantom (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)91%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Phantom (-6.5) vs paiN (+6.5)91%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550%
Match Winner49%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5)10%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-9.5) vs Phantom (+9.5)10%
Map 2 Winner0%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: counter-strike: pain vs phantom (bo3) - stake ranked episode 3 playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinals 1 match between paiN and Phantom in the Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 15 at 1:3…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Trade Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: paiN vs Phantom (BO3) - … on Mundial 2026 Grupos

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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