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Pronóstico: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 8.5 70% Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 21.5 64% Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 9.5 61% Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 22.5 57% Volume: $75K Liquidity: $219K Closes: 26 Aug 2026
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Pronóstico: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
70% 30% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
70% 30% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 8.570%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 21.564%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 9.561%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 22.557%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 9.552%
Completed Match50%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 8.550%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 O/U 10.550%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Match O/U 23.549%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Total Sets: O/U 2.543%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 O/U 10.541%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.540%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 2 Winner39%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set 1 Winner38%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik33%
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik Set Handicap +/-1.517%

Market context

Pronóstico: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik — current market-implied probability: 70%. This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Jakub Mensik in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thi…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
and

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