Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
58% | 42% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
58% | 42% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 58% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 21.5 | 48% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 Winner | 39% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov | 28% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 Winner | 17% |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 9% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 58% YES probability for Pronóstico: Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov. This market refers to the tennis match between Zachary Svajda and Denis Shapovalov in the Canadian Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zachary Sv…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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