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Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 O/U 8.5 88% Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 O/U 8.5 75% Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler 69% Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 O/U 9.5 66% Volume: $56K Liquidity: $373K Closes: 20 Jul 2026
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Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
88% 12% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
88% 12% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 O/U 8.588%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 O/U 8.575%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler69%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 O/U 9.566%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Match O/U 21.565%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 O/U 9.565%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 Winner63%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 Winner58%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Match O/U 22.556%
Completed Match51%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Match O/U 23.548%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set Handicap +/-1.543%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Total Sets: O/U 2.539%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 O/U 10.539%
Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 O/U 10.535%

Market context

The Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler prediction market currently prices this outcome at 88% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Joel Schwaerzler in the Swiss Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego'…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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