Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Pronóstico: Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes. This market refers to the tennis match between Gonzalo Bueno and Igor Ribeiro Marcondes in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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