Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
11% | 89% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
11% | 89% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 11% |
| Rory McIlroy | 10% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 6% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 5% |
| Jon Rahm | 4% |
| Xander Schauffele | 3% |
| Viktor Hovland | 3% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 3% |
| Collin Morikawa | 2% |
| Chris Gotterup | 2% |
| Justin Rose | 2% |
| Wyndham Clark | 2% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 2% |
| Cameron Young | 2% |
| Si Woo Kim | 2% |
| Sam Burns | 2% |
| Russell Henley | 2% |
| Min Woo Lee | 2% |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1% |
| Tom Kim | 1% |
| Patrick Reed | 1% |
| Shane Lowry | 1% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 1% |
| Brooks Koepka | 1% |
| Justin Thomas | 1% |
| Aaron Rai | 1% |
| J.J. Spaun | 1% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 1% |
| Jordan Spieth | 1% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1% |
| Harris English | 1% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1% |
| Ben Griffin | 1% |
| Maverick McNealy | 1% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% |
| Rickie Fowler | 1% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1% |
| Alexander Noren | 1% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 1% |
| Adam Scott | 0% |
| Cameron Smith | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Brian Harman | 0% |
| Victor Perez | 0% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| David Puig | 0% |
| Max Homa | 0% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% |
| Angel Ayora | 0% |
| Johnny Keefer | 0% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
| Sepp Straka | 0% |
| Ryan Fox | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Keegan Bradley | 0% |
| Matt Wallace | 0% |
| Tom McKibbin | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| JT Poston | 0% |
| Marco Penge | 0% |
| Bud Cauley | 0% |
| Gary Woodland | 0% |
| Keita Nakajima | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0% |
| Thomas Detry | 0% |
| Alex Smalley | 0% |
| Harry Hall | 0% |
| Daniel Berger | 0% |
| Max Greyserman | 0% |
| Jayden Schaper | 0% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Lucas Herbert | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Hendrik Du Plessis | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Andrew Novak | 0% |
| Casey Jarvis | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Billy Horschel | 0% |
| Daniel Hillier | 0% |
| Michael Brennan | 0% |
| Jackson Suber | 0% |
| Jesper Svensson | 0% |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 0% |
| Laurie Canter | 0% |
| Francesco Molinari | 0% |
| Scott Vincent | 0% |
| Sami Valimaki | 0% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 0% |
| Matthew Jordan | 0% |
| John Parry | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Daniel Brown | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 11% probability to pronóstico: pga tour: the open championship winner. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 The Open Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the The Open Championship tournament b…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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