Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 81% |
| S.Y. Noh | 50% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 44% |
| Maverick McNealy | 43% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 41% |
| Corey Conners | 34% |
| Keith Mitchell | 32% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 32% |
| Doug Ghim | 32% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 31% |
| Sam Stevens | 31% |
| Mac Meissner | 31% |
| Jake Knapp | 30% |
| Pierceson Coody | 29% |
| Jackson Suber | 28% |
| Max Homa | 28% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 28% |
| Jackson Koivun | 27% |
| Johnny Keefer | 27% |
| Tom Kim | 26% |
| Tony Finau | 26% |
| Michael Brennan | 26% |
| Brian Harman | 26% |
| Gary Woodland | 25% |
| Ben Kohles | 25% |
| Michael Kim | 24% |
| Casey Jarvis | 24% |
| Benjamin James | 23% |
| Davis Thompson | 23% |
| Max Greyserman | 22% |
| Ricky Castillo | 22% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 22% |
| Zac Blair | 22% |
| Kevin Yu | 21% |
| Beau Hossler | 21% |
| Rico Hoey | 21% |
| Zach Bauchou | 21% |
| Steven Fisk | 20% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 20% |
| Lucas Glover | 20% |
| Lee Hodges | 20% |
| Keita Nakajima | 20% |
| Denny McCarthy | 20% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 19% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 19% |
| Max McGreevy | 19% |
| William Mouw | 18% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 18% |
| Andrew Putnam | 18% |
| Seamus Power | 18% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| John Parry | 16% |
| Preston Stout | 16% |
| Jesper Svensson | 16% |
| Matt Kuchar | 16% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 16% |
| Chris Kirk | 16% |
| Austin Smotherman | 16% |
| Tom Hoge | 16% |
| Kevin Roy | 16% |
| Joel Dahmen | 16% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 15% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 15% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 14% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 14% |
| Billy Horschel | 14% |
| A.J. Ewart | 14% |
| Austin Eckroat | 14% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 14% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 13% |
| Garrick Higgo | 13% |
| David Lipsky | 13% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 12% |
| Karl Vilips | 12% |
| Aaron Wise | 12% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 11% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 11% |
| Nick Dunlap | 11% |
| Neal Shipley | 11% |
| David Skinns | 11% |
| Trace Crowe | 11% |
| Lanto Griffin | 11% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 10% |
| Luke Clanton | 10% |
| Mark Hubbard | 10% |
| Chandler Phillips | 10% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 9% |
| Ryder Cowan | 9% |
| Chad Ramey | 9% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 9% |
| Hayden Springer | 9% |
| Adam Hadwin | 9% |
| Harry Higgs | 8% |
| Gordon Sargent | 7% |
| Vince Whaley | 7% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 6% |
| Luke List | 5% |
| Cameron Champ | 5% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 81% probability to pronóstico: pga tour: 3m open top 20. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Trade Pronóstico: PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →