Pronóstico: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test, scheduled for a 90-minute window opening at 5:45 p.m. CT on Thursday 16 July, was cleanly aborted at T‑0 just before liftoff, with no official cause yet disclosed [1][2]. A recycled attempt is likely within the next day, keeping the mission on track for its primary July window [2].

Historically, Starship’s early test flights have featured multiple T‑0 aborts followed by rapid re‑attempts, with Flight 9 and Flight 11 both launching successfully after last‑second holds once range or vehicle checks cleared [2]. The 0% crowd‑implied probability for a YES outcome therefore reflects the immediate abort rather than a fundamental cancellation; past data shows that such aborts rarely translate into mission failure when the booster and ship have already completed full static fires and FAA clearance is in place [2][4].

Traders should watch SpaceX’s official launch page for a confirmed recycled attempt time, any FAA advisory updates, and the status of Booster 20 and Ship 40 following the abort [1][2]. Key dependencies include range‑status confirmation, vehicle health checks post‑abort, and the completion of any required pad inspections before the backup window on Thursday remains viable [2][4]. A successful launch would also mark the first orbital deployment of 20 V3 Starlink satellites, a new mission objective for this test [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

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Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.