Pronóstico: World Cup: Player to score

Platform comparison

Market context

The 0% probability attached to this player reflects a definitive absence from the 2026 FIFA World Cup squad, either through injury, non-selection, or retirement, rendering any goal impossible under the market’s settlement rules. In prediction markets, a zero-implied probability typically signals a binary exclusion: the player is not on the pitch, so the event cannot occur. Historical precedents show that when a named player is omitted from the final roster—such as Kevin De Bruyne in 2022 due to injury or Neymar in 2024 due to suspension—their “anytime goalscorer” markets collapse to 0% immediately, with no recovery until squad lists are officially revised.

Traders should monitor the official FIFA squad announcements released by each national federation between late May and early June 2026, as these confirm participation and trigger immediate price adjustments. A late injury update or a surprise inclusion could shift the probability from 0% to a non-zero value, but only if the player is confirmed in the final 23. According to Fox Sports, Kylian Mbappé is the Golden Boot favourite at -140, while Harry Kane and Lionel Messi trail closely, indicating that top scorers are heavily weighted in current odds [1]. If this player is not among the top 10 in Golden Boot markets, the 0% reading is structurally sound. Watch for squad list publications from the player’s national team and any last-minute injury bulletins from club sources before the tournament begins.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: World Cup: Player to score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.