Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The listed team must advance from the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage to reach the Round of 16, a knockout threshold set for 4 July 2026. With a crowd-implied probability of 68% YES, the market treats qualification as likely but not guaranteed, mirroring historical patterns where top-tier nations with strong qualifying records (like Argentina, Brazil, or France) typically secure second-place finishes or win their groups to progress. In past tournaments, teams finishing as group winners or best third-placed sides have consistently advanced, and current odds from major bookmakers show France, Spain, and England as favourites to win the tournament, reinforcing the expectation that elite squads will navigate the group stage successfully [1][2].

Traders should monitor final squad announcements, injury updates, and suspension news before the group matches begin, as these factors directly impact line-up strength and tactical flexibility. Recent reports highlight that superstars like Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, and Erling Haaland have already scored multiple goals in early qualifiers, suggesting high offensive potential, while Harry Kane’s failure to score in England’s 0-0 draw against Ghana indicates vulnerability that could be exploited [2]. Additionally, the tournament schedule shows the Round of 16 matchups will be declared between 4–7 July, meaning any delay beyond 17 July 2026 would trigger a "No" resolution, making the declaration timeline a critical dependency [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.