Pronóstico: Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group G clash between Egypt and IR Iran, set for 27 June 2026 at Seattle Stadium, is a decisive match to crown the group winner. Egypt currently leads with four points after a 3-1 victory over New Zealand and a 1-1 draw with Belgium, while Iran sits at two points following a 0-0 draw with Belgium and a 2-2 stalemate against New Zealand. The market’s 16% probability for an exact score outcome reflects the tight nature of this fixture, where Egypt are slight favourites but Iran remain unbeaten against African opposition at World Cups.

Historical precedents frame this probability: the two sides have met only once before, in a 2000 LG Cup match that ended 1-1, with Egypt winning 8-7 on penalties. That game featured current Egypt coach Hossam Hassan scoring and Iran’s Ali Daei equalising. In Opta’s 25,000 simulations, Egypt secured the group win in 44.1% of cases, a draw occurred in 31.3%, and Iran won in 24.6%. The 16% exact score probability aligns with the expectation of a low-scoring, tactical battle, similar to their previous encounter and Iran’s recent 0-0 draw with Belgium.

Traders should monitor line-up announcements and injury updates, particularly regarding Mohamed Salah, who has scored or assisted in all four of his World Cup appearances—a feat unmatched since James Rodríguez in 2014. Egypt’s attacking edge contrasts with Iran’s defensive struggles, as they rank bottom in Group G for shots on target (7) and xG (2.1). A key dependency is whether Iran can replicate their disciplined 0-0 performance against Belgium, or if Egypt’s clinical finishing, evidenced by their 3-1 win over New Zealand, will break the deadlock. Recent form suggests a tight contest, with both teams capable of limiting goals.

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Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.