Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently barely moving through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transit calls hovering near five and a seven-day average of just 13, a stark drop from the pre-conflict baseline of 100 vessels per day[1][6]. The 89% crowd-implied probability that traffic will normalise by December 2026 appears to hinge on the expectation that the ongoing US-Iran conflict will de-escalate, given that the strait has been virtually shut since Iran attacked vessels following US strikes in late February[1][2]. Historical precedent from the brief two-week ceasefire in April shows that even when the route technically reopened, confusion persisted and vessel numbers remained low, suggesting that a mere peace announcement may not instantly restore the 60-vessel threshold required for this market to resolve "Yes"[1].

Traders must watch for concrete developments in peace negotiations, specifically whether President Trump’s stipulation that the strait’s reopening is a prerequisite for a ceasefire with Tehran gains traction, as his recent declaration of a naval blockade indicates minimal progress so far[2]. The critical catalyst is the removal of Iranian-imposed tolls and the potential lifting of mines Tehran has implied are laid in the waterway, which currently block the 20% of global oil supply that once flowed freely[2]. Without a verified peace deal that restores confidence and safe passage, shipping executives remain in limbo, and the current closure risks spiking global oil prices further, which would only deepen the economic devastation if the crisis drags on[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.