Pronóstico: Iran successfully targets shipping by 2026?

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Market context

Iranian forces have already struck a Singapore-flagged commercial cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging its bridge with a drone while no crew were injured, prompting immediate US retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites [1][2]. This kinetic action against a civilian vessel, explicitly claimed by Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, directly satisfies the market’s core condition for a “Yes” resolution, as it constitutes a verified attack on commercial shipping rather than a military target [2][3].

Historically, similar escalations in the Hormuz region—such as the 2019 attacks on oil tankers—initially saw market probabilities hover below 60% before surging once state actors publicly confirmed involvement; the current 78% implied probability reflects traders’ recognition that Iran has already crossed the threshold of direct aggression against commercial shipping [1][2]. Unlike proxy actions by Houthis or Hezbollah, which are excluded from this market, the June 25 drone strike was carried out by Iranian forces from Iranian territory and officially acknowledged by Tehran, making it a definitive precedent that frames the high likelihood of settlement to “Yes” [2][3].

Traders should monitor Tehran’s next diplomatic statements regarding maritime coordination fees, as Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi recently warned that safe passage cannot be guaranteed without Iranian approval, potentially triggering further kinetic strikes or route suspensions [3]. Key catalysts include announcements from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre on new suspicious activity in the strait, US Central Command updates on Iranian radar or storage site responses, and any official Iranian declaration confirming additional attacks on commercial vessels before the July 2026 settlement window closes [2][3]. The Trump administration’s firm rejection of transit fees may further inflame tensions, increasing the probability of repeat kinetic events [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.