Pronóstico: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is asking how many earthquakes of **magnitude 6.5 or higher** will be logged worldwide during the August 3–9 window, with settlement based on the USGS catalogue. At the time of writing, the crowd is pricing a very high chance of at least one qualifying event, which fits a pattern where a single major quake can decide the market, while the exact total usually hinges on whether there is one event or a short cluster of large shocks.

Recent comparable cases show that large earthquakes do not arrive on a fixed schedule, but they do tend to come in bursts after major tectonic unrest. The 2026 record already includes several notable events in the 6.3–6.8 range, including a 6.8 off Kyushu on 28 July and a 6.3 offshore the Kermadecs on 5 August, which underlines how quickly the weekly total can move if a new mainshock or strong aftershock sequence appears.[7][12] By contrast, the daily catalogues now showing mostly low- and moderate-magnitude activity in places such as Spain and Mexico suggest that a quiet final stretch is also plausible if no fresh large rupture emerges.[1][3]

The main catalysts are the USGS search feed itself, because late-reviewed events or magnitude revisions can change whether a quake clears the 6.5 threshold. Traders should also watch for aftershock sequences following recent regional activity, particularly in the Pacific subduction zones and in Mexico, where official catalogues are still reporting dense seismicity and strong aftershocks have already been documented this month.[3][17] Because settlement ends after the UTC close of 9 August, any large event that occurs late in the window but is published later by USGS remains relevant if it falls within the defined time period.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.