Pronóstico: Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin remains firmly entrenched as Russia’s President, with no credible signs of voluntary departure or forced removal before the end of 2026. The market’s 10% implied probability for his exit reflects the overwhelming structural and institutional barriers that keep him in power, including constitutional amendments that legally permit him to stay until 2036[1][5].

Historically, comparable cases of authoritarian leaders being ousted—such as coups in Egypt or internal impeachments in Latin America—require either a fractured security apparatus or a decisive parliamentary move, neither of which is evident in Russia today. Putin’s removal would most plausibly stem from a coup by the army or security services, yet his security detail operates with near-paranoid caution, making assassination or sudden detention highly unlikely[2][9]. Even if a coup occurred, the constitution mandates the prime minister assume interim power, not an immediate end to his presidency[2].

Traders should monitor for any sudden announcements from Kremlin insiders, shifts in military loyalty, or reports of elite coordination against Putin, such as the Ukrainian intelligence claim that Russian elites are planning his removal—though this report remains unverified and speculative[3]. Key dependencies include upcoming parliamentary sessions, security agency appointments, and public statements from Putin himself, as any formal resignation or removal would instantly resolve the market to “Yes” regardless of when it takes effect. Recent analysis from the Foreign Policy Research Institute confirms there are no indications Putin will relinquish power voluntarily while alive[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.