Pronóstico: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the US government’s ongoing release of declassified UFO and UAP files, which have intensified public speculation but stopped short of confirming extraterrestrial life. In May 2026, the Pentagon released new UFO materials under the PURSUE system, yet officials and experts consistently stressed that “unidentified” does not equate to “alien”[1][2]. Despite viral footage and a Truth Social post from President Trump urging the public to “have fun and enjoy,” the documents contain no verified evidence of extraterrestrial origin[2]. The Pentagon has repeatedly attributed most UAP reports to conventional causes such as drones, balloons, or sensor anomalies[1].

Historically, no US government body has definitively confirmed extraterrestrial life, and past claims—such as those by whistleblower David Grusch about recovered “non-human biologics”—have been dismissed by the Defense Department as unsubstantiated[3][4]. Grusch himself admitted he had not personally seen alien vehicles or bodies, relying instead on witness accounts that experts deem unreliable[3]. This pattern of unverified assertions, followed by official denials, frames the current 10% crowd-implied probability as a realistic reflection of the low likelihood of a definitive confirmation by 2026[4].

Traders should monitor scheduled releases of further PURSUE documents, with Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell confirming more files are “actively being processed for publication” and expected “very soon”[2]. Key catalysts include any official statements from the President, Cabinet members, Joint Chiefs, or federal agencies, as well as congressional hearings where new testimony may emerge[6]. The next document release, due shortly after May 22, 2026, could provide fresh material, though past releases have consistently failed to confirm alien existence[2]. Any shift in probability will hinge on a clear, unambiguous declaration from an authorised US source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.