Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely moving through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transit calls hovering near zero as the ongoing Iran–US conflict keeps the chokepoint effectively closed. According to IMF PortWatch, the average dropped from roughly 100 ships per day in February to just six between March and late May, a collapse driven by Iranian attacks on vessels and imposed tolls that forced over 150 ships to anchor outside the strait[1][2]. The strait briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 but closed again the next day, leaving throughput at under 2% of normal levels and pushing war-risk insurance premiums to over 16 times their usual rate[2].

Historical precedents suggest that even short ceasefires, like the two-week pause declared on 8 April, failed to restore confidence or significantly lift vessel numbers, as confusion and lingering threats kept traffic low[1]. The 49% crowd-implied probability reflects this fragile reality: past attempts to reopen the strait have not sustained normal flows, and the current 7-day moving average of 13.14 (as of 21 June) remains far below the 60-vessel threshold required for a “Yes” resolution[7]. Without a durable peace deal, the line-up for recovery remains weak, with no credible head-to-head record of sustained normalisation since the crisis began in February.

Traders must watch for announcements from President Donald Trump, who has stated that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, and for any progress in stalled peace negotiations[3]. Key dependencies include whether Iran lifts its tolls, removes potential mines, and allows safe passage under international control rather than Iranian oversight[3]. Recent MarineTraffic data hints at gradual returns to normal levels, but uncertainty persists amid continued tensions, making the next 30 days critical for determining if the 60-vessel target can be met before the 15 July settlement window closes[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.