Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still operating well below normal, so the key question is whether IMF Portwatch can show a sustained 7-day average back at **60 crossings** or more before the end of August 2026. Reuters reported that traffic was still only a handful of ships a day in April, versus roughly 125 to 140 before the war, while later reports in June and July said flows had improved from the nadir but were still not back to pre-conflict levels.[6][2][17]

That history is important because this market is not asking for a partial rebound; it needs a clean return to a near-normal cadence on the IMF series. Comparable data points have shown that even after ceasefire headlines, routing caution, attack risk and insurer wariness can keep volumes depressed for weeks, and the strait has swung sharply between brief recoveries and renewed disruptions.[2][4][13] In practical terms, the crowd-implied 4% looks consistent with a market that is waiting for an extended spell of stable, high-volume transits rather than a one-day spike.

Traders should watch for any fresh US–Iran or regional security announcements, because the latest Reuters updates linked the July drop in transits to renewed strikes and a higher safety risk.[16][17] The other live dependency is the data itself: the outcome turns on IMF Portwatch’s published 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships”, so any lag, revision or gap in that feed matters as much as events on the water. If commercial carriers continue to avoid the route, or if shipping remains split across alternative corridors, the series is unlikely to clear the 60 threshold even if some vessels resume passing through.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.