Pronóstico: Will US withdraw from NATO by 2027?

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Market context

The United States formally initiating withdrawal from NATO or submitting an official notice of denunciation by the end of 2026 remains a low-probability event, with the crowd currently pricing it at just 5%. This hinges on whether President Trump can bypass the 2023 congressional law requiring Senate approval to leave the alliance, despite his recent claims that he does not need Congress for such a decision[2].

Historically, no member has ever withdrawn from NATO, making this a unique legal and political test rather than a repeat of a common precedent. Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty allows withdrawal after one year following a notice of denunciation, but the 2023 legislation explicitly bars the president from acting unilaterally without a two-thirds Senate vote or an Act of Congress[2][3]. The recent introduction of the "NATO Act" by Representative Thomas Massie, which seeks to force the President to notify NATO of withdrawal, adds legislative friction but does not yet constitute an official notice itself[1][4].

Traders should monitor any formal announcement from the White House regarding a notice of denunciation, as well as congressional responses to Trump’s assertions of unilateral authority. Key catalysts include the outcome of the Iran war, which Trump has cited as a reason for NATO’s inadequacy, and any Senate hearings on the 2023 defence law[2]. A sudden shift in the Senate’s stance or a direct presidential order to the State Department to file the notice would be the definitive signal, though current legal barriers suggest such a move remains unlikely before the settlement window closes[2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Will US withdraw from NATO by 2027? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

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