Pronóstico: Who will enter Iran by June 30?

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Market context

A US-Iran war erupted in February 2026 after large-scale strikes, but a remote signing of the Islamabad Memorandum on 17 June 2026 by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has halted hostilities and opened a 60-day ceasefire window. This breakthrough, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, has shifted Iran from a conflict zone to a negotiation partner, with technical talks continuing in Switzerland and a high-level committee established to oversee the process. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any listed person entering Iran by June 30 reflects the extreme risk of travel during active warfare, yet the ceasefire and diplomatic thaw create a narrow window where high-profile visits could become feasible if security conditions stabilise further.

Historically, foreign leaders have avoided Iran during active conflict, with the last significant visit by a US official occurring before the 2020 tensions; however, the 2023–2024 period saw increased diplomatic engagement following the Abraham Accords expansion, suggesting that ceasefire agreements can rapidly alter travel norms. The current probability should be read against these comparable cases: while the 0% figure is rational given the recent war, the Islamabad Memorandum’s 60-day ceasefire and the establishment of a de-confliction cell for Lebanon indicate a potential shift in security protocols that could enable visits if mediators confirm sustained stability. Traders should watch for announcements from the White House regarding Vice President JD Vance’s delayed trip to Switzerland, as his confirmed attendance could signal a willingness for high-level engagement, and monitor updates on the Strait of Hormuz communication line, which may ease maritime access risks. Recent reports from Axios confirm that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are already in Switzerland for talks, with technical discussions set to continue this week, providing a catalyst for potential visit announcements if the ceasefire holds.

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Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Who will enter Iran by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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