Pronóstico: Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is a bet on whether another country will **formally sign a normalisation deal with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework** before the end of 2026, and the low 6% crowd price implies traders still see expansion as unlikely. The framework began with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020, later adding Morocco and Sudan, and Kazakhstan formally entered in early 2026, showing that new accessions are still possible even if they remain rare.[1][4][9]

That historical record matters because the Accords have expanded only in bursts, usually after sustained US diplomacy and a favourable regional backdrop. Reuters reported in March 2025 that President Trump said more countries would be added, while the White House pointed to Saudi Arabia as a potential candidate; NBC then noted Trump had publicly pushed for several states, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to join, but Saudi officials have continued to link any move to wider regional conditions.[7][5] Comparable cases suggest that a formal signing is easier to read than loose speculation: Somaliland has pledged to join, but a pledge is not the same as a publicly signed agreement, and Sudan’s earlier arrangement has still not been fully ratified.[1][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are official announcements from Washington, Jerusalem, or the target government, plus any scheduled diplomatic visit, mediation track, or security package attached to normalisation. Kazakhstan’s entry in early 2026 shows that a quiet accession can happen without months of public theatre, but Reuters’ March 2025 reporting also underlined how Gaza and broader Arab opinion can slow momentum even when leaders signal openness.[1][7] The key line for this market is whether any country moves from rhetoric to a named, publicly acknowledged signature before 31 December 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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