Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended after a brief reopening in April failed to restore confidence. Tensions have escalated sharply following weekend strikes by US forces on Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran to retaliate by targeting a US base and threatening further vessel attacks. Current transit levels hover near zero, a precipitous drop from the pre-conflict average of roughly 100 ships daily, leaving over 150 vessels stranded and driving war risk insurance premiums to extreme levels.

Historical precedents suggest that even declared ceasefires, such as the two-week pause in April, rarely translate into sustained traffic recovery; vessel numbers remained low immediately after the agreement due to lingering routing uncertainty. The current 9% probability reflects this entrenched deadlock, where the threshold of 60 daily arrivals appears unattainable without a comprehensive peace deal that shipping executives are still awaiting. Past data shows traffic plummeted to an average of just six ships per day between March and May, reinforcing the view that a return to normalcy before July 7 is highly improbable.

Traders must monitor announcements regarding the US-Iran deadlock, as the Joint Maritime Information Centre has confirmed commercial transits remain restricted despite previous ceasefire attempts. Key dependencies include the resolution of security incidents and the removal of potential mines, which Iranian media have hinted may be present. A recent Reuters report dated 29 April noted that merely six vessels navigated the strait in the last 24 hours, underscoring that the impasse persists and that any significant uptick would require a major diplomatic breakthrough rather than incremental adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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