Pronóstico: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Keir Starmer has resigned as leader of the UK Labour Party but will remain caretaker prime minister until a new leader is chosen, meaning he has not permanently ceased occupying office. Under the market’s strict rules, temporary or interim roles do not count as removal, so Starmer’s current status keeps the YES probability at 0% despite his resignation announcement.

Historically, similar caretaker transitions—such as Gabriel Attal in France or Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief impeachment suspension—have never triggered resolution in markets requiring permanent removal, reinforcing why the crowd-implied probability remains zero. Only an election loss, forced expulsion, or death that ends tenure permanently would qualify, none of which are imminent for Starmer or his likely successor, Andy Burnham.

Traders should monitor the Labour leadership contest starting 9 July, where Burnham needs backing from 81 MPs to become leader unopposed; if he succeeds, his tenure begins only after Starmer fully exits. A general election before August 2029 is unlikely, but if called and Labour loses, Burnham would be permanently removed. Sky News reports Burnham could be confirmed by 17 July, making that date a key catalyst for when permanent removal might first occur [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.