Pronóstico: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Israel–Hamas ceasefire is still stuck between the first-stage truce and a second-stage deal, with the key unresolved issue being whether both sides can publicly agree on the next package of withdrawals, prisoner exchanges and Gaza’s future security set-up. In earlier ceasefire rounds, the market’s base rate has been poor for timely follow-through: a January 2025 agreement reached after months of mediation moved into a first phase, but second-phase talks were delayed or never properly started before the arrangement lapsed into limbo. [4][5][7]

That history matters because the current probability reflects not just a signed framework, but the harder step of turning a fragile pause into a mutual second-phase agreement. Reuters and other outlets have previously described the second phase as requiring a permanent ceasefire, full or wider Israeli withdrawal, and further hostage-prisoner swaps, while also relying on negotiations over Hamas disarmament and interim governance — exactly the areas that have repeatedly blocked progress. [4][6][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are official statements from Israel, Hamas, and the US mediators, plus any new timetable for indirect talks or cabinet approval. The settlement question turns on a *publicly announced mutual agreement*, so even a declared intention to negotiate is not enough; watch for concrete language on disarmament, security guarantees, and Gaza administration, because these are the terms most likely to decide whether Phase II is deemed reached before the 2026-12-31 cutoff. [1][2][3][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.