Pronóstico: Fed Decision in July?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene on 28 and 29 July 2026 to decide whether to adjust the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, currently anchored at 3.75%. Market participants are pricing a 78% probability that the rate will remain unchanged, reflecting a cautious stance amid persistent inflationary pressures and mixed labour market signals. This sentiment aligns with broader forecasts suggesting the Fed is unlikely to cut rates until economic conditions stabilise, with energy costs expected to stay elevated through 2028.

Historically, comparable periods of sticky inflation—such as the March 2026 meeting where the Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%—have seen similar probabilities of no change, often exceeding 75%. In those instances, the dot plot indicated only one cut for the year, with seven of 19 FOMC members expecting rates to remain unchanged. The current market probability mirrors this precedent, underscoring that the Fed’s default position remains rate maintenance unless inflation drops decisively below 3%.

Traders should monitor the upcoming Consumer Price Index release for June, scheduled in early July, and any commentary from Fed Chair Powell ahead of the meeting. Recent analysis from Forbes notes that inflation rose to 3.3% in March, and with energy prices not reverting to early 2026 levels until possibly 2028, upward pressure on prices is likely to persist [2]. Additionally, the FedWatch tool from CME Group currently implies a 4.414% rate, suggesting minimal movement is anticipated [6]. Any surprise in the June CPI data or shifts in tariff policy could alter the probability of a hike, though the baseline remains unchanged.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.