Pronóstico: Colorado Governor Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Democratic primary for Colorado’s governor, scheduled for 30 June 2026, where Attorney General Phil Weiser faces U.S. Senator Michael Bennet. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 68% YES for Weiser, despite a recent poll showing Bennet leading 36% to 30% among likely primary voters, just outside the 4.4% margin of error with 34% undecided[1]. This tight contest mirrors high-profile 2020 Democratic primaries where incumbents or term-limited officials faced off in narrow margins, often resolved by late-deciding voters or run-offs; such cases suggest that a 68% implied probability may overstate certainty when undecided blocs remain large and polling gaps are statistically insignificant[1][2].

Traders should monitor official candidate announcements from the Colorado Democratic Party, any shifts in campaign spending by independent groups like Fighting for Colorado, and the timing of final pre-primary polls that could clarify the undecided segment[1]. A key catalyst is whether Bennet’s lead consolidates beyond the margin of error in the next survey, which would challenge Weiser’s market dominance[1]. Recent reporting from Colorado Politics confirms the race is tightening as the primary approaches, with both candidates term-limited in their current roles, adding urgency to late-voter mobilisation efforts[1]. Watch for any run-off or second-round declarations, as the resolution source includes such outcomes if no single candidate wins outright[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.