Pronóstico: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from the Strait of Hormuz as Iran maintains a near-total blockade, with zero verified outbound commercial vessels recorded over the past 72 hours despite the onset of peak summer demand[2]. This operational stall, driven by asymmetric drone and missile threats, has left over 150 ships stranded and pushed war-risk insurance premiums to extreme levels, far exceeding normal rates[7]. The current 14% market probability reflects the slim chance of a sudden, unannounced reopening before June 30, given that the chokepoint has remained closed for exactly 100 days since the initial operational closure in modern history[3].

Historical precedents show that even during brief reopenings, such as the four-day window in late April, traffic remained erratic and failed to sustain normal volumes of 60 vessels daily[7]. While a recent spike to 29 crossings between 10 and 14 June offered a fleeting glimpse of recovery, activity has since collapsed back to near-zero levels, underscoring the fragility of any temporary access[1]. Traders must watch for announcements regarding the US-Iran ceasefire extension, which was recently prolonged by 60 days to facilitate peace talks, as Tehran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has previously reversed closures based on geopolitical shifts like Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon[4]. Any signal of a diplomatic breakthrough or a unilateral Iranian decision to lift the blockade would be the primary catalyst to move the line, though current data suggests the disruption remains total across all commercial vessel classifications[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.