Pronóstico: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from crossing the Strait of Hormuz as tensions between Washington and Tehran have shut the route to commercial traffic. Following US strikes on Iranian military sites and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks on vessels, daily crossings have plummeted by over 95% since March, dropping from an average of 100 ships per day to roughly six. Oil tankers, which dominated pre-war flows, are almost entirely absent, with many forced to anchor outside the chokepoint awaiting a peace deal.

Historically, the Strait has seen brief reopenings during ceasefires, such as the two-week pause in April, yet traffic remained low even then due to lingering confusion and Iranian demands for control fees. Comparable crises show that without a firm resolution, recovery is negligible; the current closure has already spiked global oil prices, suggesting traders should view the 46% YES probability as overly optimistic given the near-total standstill.

Traders must monitor announcements regarding a potential peace deal or ceasefire, as these are the only catalysts likely to restore confidence. Recent data from IMF PortWatch confirms no meaningful recovery, with shipping executives awaiting diplomatic breakthroughs to ensure safe passage. Until Washington and Iran de-escalate, the line-up for transit calls remains empty, making a sudden surge in arrivals before July 2026 highly improbable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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