Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely moving through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60, as the route remains effectively closed following the US-Iran war. A deal signed on 17 June has triggered a surge, with 25 commercial vessels crossing on a single Thursday—more than triple the daily average recorded since March—yet this remains a fragile restart rather than a sustained recovery to the 60-ship threshold required for a “Yes” outcome[1][5].

Historically, the Strait has seen only one operational closure in modern history, lasting exactly 100 days as of June 8, with traffic virtually shut off for weeks amid escalating tensions and asymmetric Iranian power using drones and missiles[2][3]. Previous brief reopenings, such as the 21 April window that closed again by 22 April, collapsed quickly due to unresolved security concerns, suggesting that current traffic spikes may not persist without a firm peace deal and full lifting of the US naval blockade by 19 July[4][5].

Traders must watch the 19 July deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a key dependency in the memorandum of understanding that guarantees commercial navigation[5]. Confirmation that Iran will exert “best efforts” to restore pre-war traffic levels, alongside real-time data from IMF PortWatch on 7-day moving averages, will be critical; any delay in blockade removal or renewed attacks could revert the strait to near-zero throughput, keeping the crowd-implied 20% probability justified[4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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