Pronóstico: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz saw a sharp rebound in commercial shipping over the weekend of 3–5 July, with Kpler confirming 108 verified crossings before the settlement window opened on 6 July [3]. This surge follows a temporary cease-fire between the US and Iran last month, which eased the blockade Iran imposed in February 2026 and allowed tankers to resume transits [5][7]. Despite this recovery, traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels, and the 82% YES probability implies the market expects the weekly total to stay within a specific threshold, likely under 110 vessels given the weekend’s 108 count [3].

Traders must monitor whether the resilience shown over the weekend persists through 6–12 July, particularly amid fresh attack risks. On 6 July, the IRGC fired missiles at two commercial ships—a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi crude tanker—causing damage and a fire on one vessel, though no casualties were reported [3]. These incidents underscore that while the strait is technically open, security threats remain acute and could abruptly curtail flows. The key catalyst is the continuation of indirect talks in Qatar, which concluded last week with no progress toward lasting peace, leaving the corridor vulnerable to further disruption [3].

Historical context shows that even brief escalations can freeze outbound traffic entirely; in late June, zero commercial vessels moved outbound for 72 hours amid a severe bottleneck crisis [2]. The current 82% probability suggests the market believes the temporary cease-fire will hold for the week, but any renewed IRGC aggression or US naval response could collapse volumes. With 20–30% of global oil consumption passing through daily, the settlement hinges on whether the 108 weekend crossings represent a sustained trend or a fleeting spike before another disruption [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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