Pronóstico: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the first-day view count of MrBeast’s next YouTube upload, which must occur before 30 July 2026 to avoid automatic resolution to the lowest bracket. His latest video, “I Stranded 100 People In The Wilderness For $250,000,” posted on 2 May 2026, garnered 35.3 million views in its initial 24 hours[1]. This figure anchors the current market consensus, which assigns a 100% probability to the 30–40 million range for the next release[2]. Historical data shows a gradual decline in per-video views over recent years, with newer content achieving 91 million in two weeks compared to earlier peaks of 193 million in eight weeks[6], suggesting the 35.3 million baseline is realistic but not exceptional.

Traders should monitor MrBeast’s official announcements for the next upload date, as delays beyond the deadline trigger immediate settlement to the lowest range. The channel’s Viewstats platform, which tracks daily analytics, may offer early signals on content scheduling or promotional pushes[4]. No recent news indicates suspensions, injuries, or lineup changes affecting production, but the creator’s history of high-stakes challenges implies potential volatility in view performance depending on the video’s theme. With the settlement window ending 28 June 2026, the absence of a confirmed upload date by now heightens the risk of the lowest-bracket outcome, despite the current 0% YES probability for higher ranges[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.