Pronóstico: MLB World Series Champion 2026

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the 2026 MLB World Series, which concludes on 31 October 2026, with the current 14% YES probability implying a roughly seven-to-one chance that a specific listed team wins. Historically, such odds have framed genuine contenders only when a team holds a dominant win-loss record and a short futures price; for instance, the Los Angeles Dodgers entered as favourites at +180 and have tightened to +190 with a 40-23 record, while the New York Yankees sit at +500 with 35-23 wins, making them the only other team under 10-1 odds [1][2]. Teams like Detroit, opened at +2000, have drifted to +2500 amid a subpar 30-33 season, illustrating how poor form rapidly erodes championship probability [1].

Traders must watch three key catalysts: the 14 July All-Star Game, which often signals roster adjustments; mid-July trade-deadline announcements that could reshape line-ups; and any injury updates on star players, as suspensions or long-term absences can instantly invalidate a team’s title path [1][6]. Recent reporting notes the Dodgers’ short price is deterring bettors despite their strong record, while the Yankees are closing the gap as the second choice [1]. With the season underway and no cancellation expected, the market hinges on whether the Dodgers maintain their lead or the Yankees overtake them before October.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: MLB World Series Champion 2026 on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.