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Pronóstico: World Cup: Young Player Award Winner

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: World Cup: Young Player Award Winner" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Pau Cubarsí 100% Lamine Yamal 0% Désiré Doué 0% Warren Zaïre-Emery 0% Volume: $411K Closes: 20 Jul 2026
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Pronóstico: World Cup: Young Player Award Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Pau Cubarsí100%
Lamine Yamal0%
Désiré Doué0%
Warren Zaïre-Emery0%
Nico O'Reilly0%
Arda Güler0%
Endrick0%
Lennart Karl0%
Antonio Nusa0%
João Neves0%
Kobbie Mainoo0%
Kenan Yıldız0%
Nico Paz0%
Yan Diomande0%
Geovany Quenda0%
Aleksandar Pavlović0%
Ibrahim Mbaye0%
Ayyoub Bouaddi0%
Lucas Bergvall0%
Rayan0%
Player A0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Other0%

Market context

The Pronóstico: World Cup: Young Player Award Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market will resolve to the player who wins the Young Player Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by F…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: World Cup: Young Player Award Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
and

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