Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely navigating the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits hovering near six vessels instead of the typical 125 to 140, as the US-Iran deadlock deepens despite an April ceasefire. Commercial traffic remains at a trickle, constrained by routing uncertainty and Iranian territorial control, leaving the world’s most critical energy chokepoint effectively closed for over 100 days. This severe disruption has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel and forced 150+ ships to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and tripling tanker spot rates for Gulf-to-Asia routes.

Historical parallels from the February 28 closure show that even brief reopenings, such as the one on April 21, 2026, collapsed within a day due to security incidents and renewed military activity. Comparable cases indicate that asymmetric power—drones, missiles, and potential mines—allows Iran to maintain control without full-scale war, keeping transits suppressed well below the 60-day moving average threshold required for this market to resolve "Yes". The 16% crowd-implied probability reflects this entrenched reality, where peace negotiations have yielded minimal progress and naval blockades persist.

Traders must watch for announcements from the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center regarding ceasefire terms, as well as scheduled Iranian naval patrols that could trigger further closures. Recent Reuters reporting confirms that merely six vessels passed in the last 24 hours, underscoring the fragility of any reopening. Dependencies include the expiration of war risk insurance premiums, which are now over 16 times normal rates, and potential US naval escort expansions that Iran has warned could exacerbate tensions. Without a definitive shift in these catalysts, traffic returning to normal by June 30 remains highly improbable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.