Pronóstico: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether the United States and Iran announce a formal diplomatic agreement over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz before the market deadline. The current 59% implied chance sits above a pure coin-flip because there is already a live negotiating track, but the market still depends on a clearly worded official deal rather than vague signalling or temporary de-escalation. [4][9][20]

Recent history gives traders a useful base case: a memorandum of understanding was already signed in June and was described as reopening the strait and easing some U.S. maritime pressure, but multiple reports have stressed that it was an initial framework, not a final peace settlement. Reuters later reported that talks in Doha produced no clear progress towards a lasting deal, while fresh reporting on 4 August showed conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements and new attacks on shipping, which underlines how fragile any price-in of completion remains. [10][18][3][4]

The main catalysts are official statements from Washington and Tehran, plus any mediator-led update from Oman or Qatar. Reuters reported on 4 August that President Trump said talks were under way and warned of a “last chance” for Tehran, while Iran denied that negotiations were being held or scheduled; at the same time, Iranian officials told media that talks with Oman over Hormuz were in their final stages, which keeps the market live but dependent on whether those discussions become an announced bilateral instrument. The U.S. Treasury’s sanction waiver through 21 August and the earlier resumption of some shipping also matter, because they can signal implementation steps without necessarily satisfying the market’s requirement for a new diplomatic agreement. [4][1][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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