Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran have just signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding on 15 June 2026, establishing a 60-day ceasefire and framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, yet explicitly deferring detailed nuclear negotiations to subsequent talks. This initial agreement, described as a broad framework rather than a final peace deal, commits both nations to negotiate toward dismantling Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, but the crowd-implied probability of a final signed instrument by August 2026 remains at 0% because the current deal is merely a stepping stone requiring further high-stakes bargaining on enrichment levels and stockpile removal.

Historical precedents like the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) demonstrate that final nuclear agreements demand exhaustive technical detail and mutual enforcement mechanisms, whereas the current MoU lacks these specifics and relies on a High Level Committee to oversee implementation without a binding enforcement clause. Traders should monitor the upcoming technical discussions in Switzerland this week, where mediators report a roadmap for a final agreement has been agreed, alongside Vice President JD Vance’s insistence that Iran must invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors—a condition Iranian officials have not yet publicly confirmed. Recent reports from Arms Control Association note President Trump’s claim that an agreement is “largely negotiated,” yet Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei cautions that signing is not imminent, highlighting the critical dependency on whether the 60-day window yields a mutually signed instrument addressing the complete dismantling of enrichment sites.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.