Pronóstico: US announces blockade on Iran by 2026?

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Market context

The United States has already imposed a naval blockade on Iran, effective from 10 a.m. ET on 13 April 2026, following the collapse of the Islamabad Talks and the escalation of the 2026 Iran war. This action, authorised by President Donald Trump and executed by CENTCOM under Admiral Brad Cooper, targets all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and the entirety of Iran’s coastline, while leaving the Strait of Hormuz open for non-Iranian transit. The market’s 32% YES probability appears to reflect uncertainty over whether this existing event satisfies the resolution condition, despite the announcement being public, official, and operationally active.

Historically, such blockades are rare in recent decades; the 2026 US blockade of Iran is largely unprecedented, with CENTCOM offering limited operational details initially but later clarifying impartial enforcement against all nations. Past Middle East military actions, including the Navy’s routine boarding of merchant vessels regardless of consent, provide context for how this blockade may be enforced. The blockade has already cost Iran an estimated $5.8 billion in lost oil revenues over April and May, with exports plummeting from nearly 2 million barrels per day to under 300,000 bpd, though some evasion persists.

Traders should monitor official statements regarding the status of the blockade, particularly any announcements tied to the 19 June agreement signing that could trigger its lifting. CENTCOM has confirmed the blockade remains in effect until the agreement is formally signed, and any delay or reversal in that process would sustain the current enforcement. Recent reporting from Al Jazeera (5 June 2026) highlights the blockade’s severe economic impact and Iran’s denunciation of it as unlawful, underscoring the high stakes involved. Watch for CENTCOM press releases, Trump administration briefings, and maritime traffic data from Lloyd’s List as key indicators of continuity or change.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: US announces blockade on Iran by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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