Pronóstico: Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

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Market context

Iran has not issued a public, official commitment to cease attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, despite intense US diplomatic pressure demanding such a pledge as a precondition for ongoing negotiations. The US explicitly requires Iran to declare that all strait channels are open and that vessels will no longer be targeted, yet Tehran has instead framed recent IRGC naval actions as lawful inspections of ships lacking permits or interfering with navigation, not breaches of ceasefire [1][2].

Historical precedents show Iran leveraging the strait as strategic leverage rather than relinquishing control through declarative policy shifts; even after announcing a reopening last week, the IRGC captured and attacked commercial vessels, asserting Iran would “never” relinquish authority over the waterway [2][3]. Previous US demands for public guarantees have similarly failed to produce unambiguous Iranian commitments, with Tehran consistently conditioning passage on the cessation of hostilities by Israel and the US, rather than issuing standalone non-aggression pledges [5][9].

Traders should monitor the outcome of Sunday’s US–Iran talks in Switzerland and any subsequent official statements from Iran’s joint military command or the presidency, as these are the only channels capable of producing a qualifying announcement [5]. The immediate catalyst is whether mediators secure a public Iranian statement guaranteeing non-hostile passage; without this, the market resolves to No, given Iran’s recent pattern of attacking or halting vessels while claiming procedural justification rather than policy change [2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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