Pronóstico: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively ceased since 6 July 2026, with large vessels halting AIS-visible transits on the US-coordinated route following a reversal of Iran’s brief reopening. The strait remains officially closed, leaving over 150 ships stranded and pushing throughput below 2% of normal daily tonnage, while war-risk insurance premiums have surged to more than 16 times standard rates[5].

Historically, zero-transit days in Hormuz have occurred only during active conflict phases, such as the near-standstill in late February 2026 after US-Israeli strikes and subsequent Iranian toll impositions[4][10]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a zero-day reflects the June 17 US-Iran deal that mandated immediate commercial navigation restart, which saw 25 vessels pass on 25 April—the highest volume since the prior closure[2]. However, WTO tracker data shows crude exports down 90% since that deal, with zero activity recorded on 10 of the last 19 days tracked in early April[1], suggesting fragility in the reopening.

Traders must monitor the 19 July deadline for the US to fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a prerequisite under the memorandum of understanding for Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels[2]. Any delay in blockade removal or renewed Iranian permit requirements could trigger another shutdown. Recent reports confirm Iran continues to insist vessels secure permits for passage, and a second tanker strike by an Iranian drone in late June underscores the persistent risk of disruption despite the ceasefire accord[6]. IMF PortWatch data will be the definitive settlement source; if it records zero arrivals for any date before 31 July 2026, the market resolves YES.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.