Pronóstico: Bitcoin price on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is the final closing price of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, captured specifically from the one-minute candle at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026. Traders are betting on whether this precise figure will land within a defined range, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "Yes" outcome sitting at zero, suggesting the market expects the price to fall outside the leading brackets.

Historical context frames this near-zero probability against recent volatility; on 1 June 2026, Bitcoin traded at $72,145.11 before dropping significantly, yet current predictions for late June hover around $60,934.30, indicating a stabilisation in the $60,000–$62,000 zone [3][4]. Polymarket data shows the leading outcome is "60,000–62,000" at 77%, followed by "62,000–64,000" at 13%, which contradicts the zero probability for "Yes" if that term implies hitting these ranges [1]. This discrepancy suggests the "Yes" condition likely refers to a specific, higher threshold not currently favoured by the crowd.

Key catalysts to watch include the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and any major regulatory announcements from the SEC, which often trigger sharp price movements in the crypto market. Binance’s own price prediction models suggest a modest 5% increase over the next 30 days, potentially reaching $61,733.52, though technical indicators remain cautious about breaking the $117,000 resistance level seen in late 2025 [4][5]. Traders should monitor the 12:00 ET candle closely, as liquidity sweeps around $116,600–$118,800 could distort the final close if volatility spikes [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Bitcoin price on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.