Pronóstico: Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas has repeatedly linked any discussion of disarmament to a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and other ceasefire conditions, rather than offering an unconditional commitment to give up its weapons. Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not discuss disarmament unless it received guarantees of a complete Israeli withdrawal, while the BBC and other outlets later reported the group had rejected phased disarmament plans and was still demanding a broader political settlement.[1][2][3][11]

That history matters because the market requires an **official announcement** from Hamas agreeing to disarm, not merely hints about surrendering heavy weapons or handing arms to a neutral party. In recent reporting, Hamas has sometimes signalled willingness to negotiate around **heavy weapons** or staged arrangements, but has continued to resist anything framed as full disarmament, which helps explain why the crowd has priced the event at **0%**.[4][6][9][12] Comparable ceasefire episodes have followed the same pattern: public flexibility on process, but no recognised leadership statement accepting weapons relinquishment on the terms demanded by outside mediators.[3][8]

The main catalysts are any new statement from Hamas’s recognised leadership, a formal revision to the Trump-backed “Board of Peace” framework, or a credible sequencing deal that first satisfies Hamas’s demands on Israeli withdrawal, aid access, and governance. Reuters and the BBC have both highlighted that Hamas has used these preconditions to defer disarmament talks, so traders should watch for changes in those dependencies rather than general rhetoric about truce talks.[1][2][4][6] Even a partial commitment would only count if it is a clear public pledge to relinquish or dismantle military capabilities in Gaza, rather than a private negotiating position or a tactical pause.[4][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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