Pronóstico: Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket final match between 4 Anchors and Ilmeria and the bug in The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, which was played on 26 June at 8:00 PM ET. The match concluded with a decisive 2–0 victory for 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, meaning the market has already settled in favour of the "YES" outcome, rendering the current 50% crowd-implied probability obsolete for active trading.

Historically, qualifier lower-bracket finals in North America often see one team dominate early when facing a roster with recent instability, as seen when the bug’s lineup absorbed monkey into a collection formerly known as Aros, creating uncertainty that opponents exploited swiftly. Comparable cases from TI regional qualifiers show that teams entering with fresh roster upgrades but untested synergy frequently lose both games in a BO3, mirroring the 4–1 and 6–12 scorelines recorded here, where dnm secured 10 kills and Newsham delivered 8 assists to seal the series.

Traders should monitor official settlement confirmations from Gamers World and Strafe Esports, which have already verified the 2–0 result, and watch for any delayed resolution notices if the platform fails to update before the 27 June deadline. No further catalysts exist, as the match is complete; the only dependency is the automated market closure, which will resolve to "4 Anchors and Ilmeria" unless a technical error forces a 50–50 tie resolution, a scenario unsupported by the verified match data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.