Pronóstico: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil futures will close on 13 July 2026, and the market will determine whether that closing price exceeds the prior trading day's settlement. The 100% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in an upward move or a technical anomaly in market pricing, as single-day directional bets on commodity futures rarely achieve such certainty absent extraordinary circumstances.

Daily crude price movements historically oscillate within 2–4% ranges during normal market conditions, with reversals occurring roughly half the time. Between 2020 and 2025, WTI exhibited no directional bias on any given trading day; consecutive up-days and down-days occurred with near-equal frequency. A probability this extreme would require either a pre-announced supply shock, geopolitical event, or OPEC+ production decision scheduled for that exact date. Without such a catalyst locked into the calendar, the 100% reading suggests either incomplete market information or a pricing error that traders should scrutinise before committing capital.

Traders should monitor OPEC+ meeting schedules, US inventory data releases (typically Wednesdays via the Energy Information Administration), and any Middle East developments in the week preceding settlement. Refinery maintenance schedules and dollar strength movements also influence WTI intraday, though these rarely produce the sustained directional pressure needed to guarantee a one-day move in either direction. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 13 July, giving traders the full US trading session to assess whether the prior close is breached.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.