Pronóstico: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude is trading in the mid-$70s to high-$70s, which places the market well below the thresholds currently quoted in the prediction book. One live feed put WTI around $76.34 early on 5 August after a steep earlier decline, while another reported $74.63 for the same session as crude extended a third straight fall[1][5]. That leaves the “above” contracts highly sensitive to the exact strike: the crowd’s 0% yes probability is consistent with a market that has recently been drifting under the relevant levels rather than closing comfortably above them[6].

Recent price action is the main historical guide here. WTI’s latest slide has been linked to easing Middle East supply fears and hopes of a gradual reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has reduced the risk premium that had supported prices[5]. The front-month August WTI contract also closed up only marginally in one recent session, suggesting limited momentum even before the latest decline[11]. For traders, the key comparison is not with long-run oil history but with the recent distribution of closes around the high-$70s: if spot trade stays in that band, only a sharp intraday rebound would put an above-close outcome back in play[1][8].

The immediate catalysts are mostly supply and headline-driven rather than demand-side. Any fresh update on Hormuz shipping, Middle East security, or OPEC+ supply discipline could move the contract quickly, because the market has been reacting to changes in the perceived disruption premium[5]. The active prediction-market ladder also shows nearby reference levels at about $78.49, $78.99, $79.49 and $82.99, which matter because a late-session move through one of those bands would alter the implied settlement chance materially[6]. Front-month futures pricing and the final hours of electronic trade are the main dependency to watch into settlement[11][19].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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