Pronóstico: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private market valuation must reach the listed threshold on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) data before 31 December 2026 to trigger a “Yes” resolution, with the current crowd-implied probability at 12% for that outcome. NPM publishes price-per-share updates daily for trading days only, and the market resolves based on the official NPM Price, not headline financing rounds.

Historical precedent shows secondary-market valuations can diverge sharply from announced rounds; Anthropic’s Series H-1 round in May 2026 set a $965bn post-money valuation, yet NPM data by July 2026 already priced the company at $1.14tn, an 18% uplift [2][3]. Comparable cases like OpenAI demonstrate that NPM prints often lag financing announcements but can surge rapidly when secondary demand intensifies, as seen when Anthropic’s NPM valuation flipped ahead of OpenAI’s by May 2026, reaching $936bn versus $822bn [5]. The 12% probability suggests traders doubt the listed amount is near current $1.14tn levels, implying the threshold is likely set well above $1.5tn.

Key catalysts include the next NPM update cycle and any new capital raises that could push secondary prices higher. A $13bn raise in 2025 already triggered a 3x valuation jump to ~$183bn, showing how funding announcements can rapidly reset NPM anchors [3]. Traders should monitor Forge Global and NPM daily prints, as CEO Kelly Rodriques noted Anthropic’s secondary valuation now hovers around $1tn, with potential to breach higher marks if enterprise revenue and Claude demand continue surging [6][8]. Any delay in NPM data publication could extend the settlement window to 4 January 2027, adding timing risk to the bet.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.