Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, played at Los Angeles Stadium on 25 June 2026, concluded with Türkiye winning 3–2 after a dramatic stoppage-time goal. The game ended with Türkiye leading 2–1 at halftime, a result that directly contradicts the current 0% market probability for a Türkiye halftime win, suggesting the market is mispricing a settled outcome or confusing the event date.

Historically, when a team wins 2–1 at halftime in a World Cup group match and then secures a late winner, the halftime result is never overturned; the 2–1 scoreline remains the definitive settlement point. In this case, the 0% probability for a Türkiye halftime win is factually incorrect, as the match already finished with Türkiye ahead 2–1 at the break, making the market’s pricing a clear anomaly rather than a reflection of future uncertainty.

Traders should monitor official FIFA match reports and live score archives, which confirm the 2–1 halftime score, rather than relying on speculative crowd sentiment. Recent coverage from Yahoo Sports explicitly states “Halftime: Türkiye 2, USMNT 1” and details the final 3–2 result, providing irrefutable evidence that the market is pricing a settled event as if it remains open. Any further announcements will only reinforce the existing data, not alter the outcome.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.