Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup group-stage match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 25 June 2026 at Los Angeles Stadium, carries no knockout implications for either side: Türkiye are already eliminated after two defeats, while the US have secured advancement with two wins. The market focuses solely on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation, excluding extra time and penalties, with a current crowd-implied probability of just 5% for the “YES” outcome.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group games where one team is eliminated and the other has advanced tend to show low liquidity and skewed probabilities, often clustering around 1–1 or 2–1 results. In the five previous encounters between these nations, every match with a winner finished 2–1, and the lone draw was 1–1. Given Türkiye’s failure to score in both prior World Cup matches despite 62 shots, and the US’s tendency to concede at most one goal in six consecutive group games, a 1–2 or 2–1 scoreline remains the most statistically plausible, yet the 5% probability suggests the market is pricing in significant uncertainty around line-up rotations and injury news.

Traders should monitor two key catalysts before settlement: confirmation of Christian Pulisic’s availability, as Flashscore reports a calf injury that could force his withdrawal [2], and whether either coach rotates heavily—Montella for Türkiye, desperate for pride, and Pochettino for the US, likely to rest stars after two wins [2]. A recent The Athletic article notes the match has “no consequences for either team,” reinforcing the likelihood of rotated line-ups that could disrupt expected scoring patterns [6]. Until official line-ups are confirmed, the exact-score probability remains highly volatile.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.