Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Mark Flekken: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Mark Flekken: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Mark Flekken: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Mark Flekken: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 knockout match between Netherlands and Morocco, scheduled for 9:00 PM ET on 29 June 2026, where player prop markets settle on individual performances within the 90-minute window plus extra time. Historical precedents for similar World Cup knockout clashes between a European side and a disciplined African defence often produce tight, low-scoring draws that force extra time, with both teams frequently scoring late. Recent analysis from Covers.com and RotoWire suggests a 1-1 draw at 90 minutes is the most probable scoreline, with Morocco potentially advancing in extra time, framing the current 50% YES probability as a balanced reflection of this stalemate tendency rather than a clear Dutch dominance [1][2].
Traders must monitor final line-up confirmations and injury updates for key attackers like Cody Gakpo and Netherlands’ midfielders, as their availability directly impacts player prop outcomes for goals, assists, and shots. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Gakpo’s “to score or assist” market as a focal point, making his fitness a critical dependency [8]. Additionally, the over/under 2.5 total goals line at FanDuel and CBS Sports leans toward the over, with CBS noting a bias for 2.5+ goals, suggesting that defensive lapses or late pressure could drive player props higher [4]. No suspensions have been officially reported, but any late withdrawal from the Netherlands’ starting XI would significantly alter the risk profile for player-specific bets.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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