Pronóstico: Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its June meeting and potentially hike in September, ruling out any cuts through the June–September window that this market covers. Traders have trimmed bets on a July hike after inflation data showed the central bank’s preferred gauge hitting a three-year peak, yet futures still assign roughly 80% odds to a September increase from the current 3.50%–3.75% range[2].

Historically, when the Fed’s dot plot flips from cuts to hikes—as it did in June 2026 with nine of 18 officials now projecting at least one increase before year-end—the probability of a cut in the following three meetings collapses to near zero[8][9]. This shift, led by new Chair Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting, erased earlier forecasts for a 2026 cut and pushed the median year-end rate projection to 3.8%, effectively confirming zero cuts in 2026 so far[8][10].

Key catalysts include the July 28–29 and September 15–16 FOMC meetings, with traders watching inflation prints, labour data, and any escalation in Middle East tensions that could further boost hike odds[2][6]. The June minutes already indicated no cuts until early 2027, while renewed Iran conflict risks have lifted September hike probability to approximately 70%[6]. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for a cut, the market aligns with the Fed’s hawkish pivot and the absence of any cut signal in recent projections[8][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Fed decisions (Jun-Sep). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.